Ethereum's ETF: Another "Big Surprise"
The approval of Ethereum's ETF came as a big surprise as the classic theme of Jupiter-Uranus continues to ride high.
It arrived like a strike of lightning last week and shocked the world: Ethereum ETFs have been approved in the United States. The news has taken markets by surprise, resulting in a massive 20% pop from $3000 to $3600 on May 20th with an eventual 30% gain by the end of a week. This news was unexpected by most observers and reveals yet another volley in the grand Jupiter-Uranus conjunction which is currently unfolding.
Jupiter-Uranus and Techno-Optimism
Jupiter-Uranus transits are known for bringing a frothy sense of techno-optimism into markets (Numinous Realm). During the current Jupiter-Uranus conjunction (active from May 2023 to March 2025 if using a 20° orb—which I personally find more appropriate for world transits than the 15° orb often used by other analysts), we've experienced several technology business peak experiences such as:
- Bitcoin's landmark approval for spot ETFs in January 2024 (Numinous Realm)
- Meta's $197 billion stock surge in February 2024—the biggest in stock market history (Bloomberg)
- OpenAI's $7 trillion potential fundraise reported in February 2024 to reshape the future of chips and AI (Wall Street Journal)
- Bitcoin hitting a new all-time-high price in March 2024 (Bloomberg)
- Nvidia's scorching rally which boosted its market cap by over $1 trillion as reported in March 2024 (Bloomberg)
From Dark Collapse to Fuzzy Feelings
We've been very interested to note at Numinous Realm how the dark days of the brutal tech layoffs from late 2022 to early 2023 coincided with the closing chapter of the Saturn-Uranus square which was operative from 2020 to 2023. Saturn-Uranus transits have historically seen structural collapse during major transits, including 2008 in real estate, 2001 in tech, and 1987 in finance.
Just on cue, it's been remarkable to observe the macro feeling for technology business open into a warm fuzzy glow just as the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction entered into orb since the summer of 2023. It has been strange to note that in some cases, this psychological opening has been supported by synchronistic material factors such as the Bitcoin halving and a genuine increase in Nvidia's revenue over the period. This reflects a curious correlation between psychological and material factors—or what depth psychologist Carl Jung referred to as psychic and psychoid manifestation of archetypes (International Association for Analytical Psychology).
Ethereum's "Hallelujah Moment"
Ethereum's ETF approval really has come as a shock for the wider market. For months now, a new narrative had gripped the crypto markets of a "barbell" between Bitcoin and Solana, where Bitcoin's sole claim to spot-ETF would give it institutional capital, while Solana's greater speed and cheaper cost (while trading off security) would make it a friendlier chain for the retail investor and would potentially overcome Ethereum at some point. However, Jupiter-Uranus transits are a period of "sudden breakthroughs," "unexpected expansion," "flashes of good fortune," and that's how it felt for the cryptoverse as Ethereum's dominance was suddenly reaffirmed. It is worth noting that Solana investors received the inverse of this—although a stronger Ethereum is likely to help drive the entire crypto market forward.
One of the major blocks to overcome was Ethereum's uncertain status as a commodity versus a security. This was a major sticking point raised by SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Mr. Gensler has been holding his position as a Saturnian authority in the crypto world, often playing a negating role that limits the rebellious and at times reckless lack of regulation of crypto. And yet for some reason, in May 2024, his department seems to have been swayed by the innovative momentum of Uranus amplified by Jupiter that has been galvanizing a renewed interest in cryptocurrencies by the mainstream, including President Donald Trump's acceptance of crypto for campaign contributions—thus bringing it into focus for the upcoming US election in November 2024. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently shared at the crypto conference Consensus 2024, stating, "The read was it was not going to be approved. It was absolutely not going to be approved. If it were to have been approved the regular way, we would have been getting questions from the SEC. No one was getting questions from the SEC beforehand," (Coindesk).
What's Next for Ethereum
Concrete prediction is a dark art (i.e., predicting material outcomes), something we hold with a light hand at Numinous Realm, although our confidence regarding the "archetypal prediction" of diachronic patterning remains the bedrock of our R&D. We know that the same archetypal psychological complex manifests in an infinite variety of multivalence. However, our best guesstimate at the moment is focusing on a continued growth in momentum for the crypto markets this summer, amplifying after the Mars cross of Jupiter-Uranus in early July (Numinous Realm), with a peak to be expected in Fall 2024. However, the emergent dynamics of the two major ETFs now being given the green light leave a lot of room for this trend to develop over a slightly longer timeframe, given that Jupiter-Uranus in a 20° orb will finally leave its aspect in March 2025.